The opposition ANO has dropped to 28% in the latest STEM election model, its worst result since the agency started the polls in January. However, ANO still leads by a wide margin, with the Spolu coalition trailing on 21%, according to the model released by CNN Prima News.
The far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) is again in third place, followed by the Mayors and Independents (STAN) and the Pirate Party. The extra-parliamentary Motorists and Stacilo! would also make it into the lower house, according to the poll results, though Stacilo! (‘Enough!’) has dropped by two percentage points since last week.
Ex-PM Andrej Babis’s ANO long hovered around 30% in STEM’s weekly electoral models. In the latest poll on Sunday it had 30.9%, and is now nearly three percentage points down. “It remains true, however, that Andrej Babis and co. remain the main force on the political scene,” the pollsters noted.
Spolu has improved by 1.5 percentage points since Sunday. SPD has gained 1.8 percentage points, overtaking STAN, which remains static at 12.2%.
Analysts say STAN’s position is extremely difficult. “It shares a lot of lukewarm voters with Spolu and the Pirates. At the same time, the Dosimeter case, which is often associated with STAN, has revived,” said the report, referring to the ongoing trial of an alleged organised criminal conspiracy including a former Prague city councillor for STAN, involved in vast corruption at the Prague Public Transport Company (DPP).
The Pirates would get 9.8% if elections were held now, an increase of 0.5 percentage points. The Motorists fell slightly to 5.6%, while Stacilo! weakened by 2.2 percentage points to 5.5%.
“Next to ANO, Stacilo! is the most convincing drop in support,” said STEM. “This result would mean the movement’s entry into the lower house is uncertain,” STEM said. The threshold for winning seats in parliament is 5%.
ANO would now win 63 seats in the 200-seat Chamber of Deputies. Spolu, comprising the Civic Democrats (ODS), Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) and TOP 09, would have 46 seats, SPD 29, STAN 25 and the Pirates 20. The Motorists would have nine MPs and Stacilo! eight.
STEM analysts conducted the survey in three waves until 24 September, with more than 1,500 respondents from across the country.
The expected election turnout is 65.5%, according to the poll. In the last parliamentary elections in 2021, turnout was 65.43%.
STEM election model results (in percentage of votes):
| 25 Sep | 21 Sep | 14 Sep | 07 Sep | 31 Aug | 24 Aug | 17 Aug | 10 Aug | 03 Aug | 27 July | 20 July | 13 July | |
| ANO | 28.0 | 30.9 | 31.3 | 30.7 | 31.2 | 32.7 | 32.5 | 31.1 | 31.5 | 32.9 | 31.5 | 30.9 |
| Spolu | 21.0 | 19.5 | 20.2 | 20.3 | 20.9 | 21.3 | 20.1 | 21.3 | 20.8 | 21.2 | 19.4 | 19.9 |
| SPD | 13.8 | 12.0 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 12.8 | 11.0 | 12.1 | 13.2 | 13.8 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 12.4 |
| STAN | 12.2 | 12.2 | 10.0 | 10.5 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 10.8 | 10.5 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 13.2 |
| Pirates | 9.8 | 9.3 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 8.0 |
| Motorists | 5.6 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Stacilo! | 5.5 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 6.3 |
