According to Median, the coalition of the Pirate Party and STAN are leading the polls with 27.5%, with ANO trailing on 24.5%, confirming a recent trend in other opinion polls. The junior coalition partner in the current government, ČSSD, are polling at just 4% and would fail to enter parliament. Photo: Members of Pirates and STAN coalition. Credit: Pirati.cz.
According to the March voter preference survey from polling company Median, the coalition of the Pirate Party and STAN (PaS) are leading the polls with 27.5%, with ANO trailing on 24.5%. This confirms a trend seen in other polls in recent weeks, suggesting that recent consolidation in the Czech opposition is presenting a threat to Andrej Babiš’s party.
Graph: Parliament Election Model – March 2021. Source: Median, March 2021.
According to the poll, three other parties or coalitions would gain representation in the Chamber of Deputies: the SPOLU coalition (ODS, TOP 09, and KDU-CSL) on 17.5%, Tomio Okamura’s SPD on 10%, and the Communists on 7.5%. The current junior coalition partner, the Social Democrats (ČSSD), are polling at just 4% and would miss the 5% threshold to enter parliament.
ANO enjoyed an interrupted lead in all Czech opinion polls from summer 2017 until last week. Other polls have made worse reading for the Prime Minister; a poll by Kantar last week found PaS 12 points ahead, though Kantar’s polls tend to favour the opposition. This is the first time the Median survey has shown ANO trailing.
The Median report commented that PaS have “an ever-growing electoral core” and currently stand to “gain more seats in parliament than the ANO 2011 movement.”
Less than half of the respondents (49%) are certain to vote, and more than a third (36%) said they would definitely vote, but have not firmly decided what party they will vote for. Even if the results of this poll were replicated at an election tomorrow, they would be followed by an uncertain coalition formation process, in which President Miloš Zeman would play an important role.
Median an independent research agency specialized in market, media surveys and public opinion polls.
