Media outlets around Europe have been analysing the potential outcomes of this weekend’s Czech general election, and their likely implications for the political direction of the Czech Republic and its place in the EU. They generally consider the favourite to be former Prime Minister Andrej Babis, a former liberal turned conservative who co-founded the populist European Parliament group Patriots for Europe with his ally, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Various media outlets note how his victory could have implications for Brussels and European politics, diverting the country from its pro-European course and deepening divisions over the war in Ukraine.
Euractiv notes that the current Prime Minister, Petr Fiala, is relying on the country’s NATO membership and defending the government’s economic performance. But support for Babis has risen due to frustration with high inflation, rising energy prices and unpopular pension reforms.
“Brussels is nervous,” Euractiv writes. “Babis’s return could bring another Orban to the European Council table, with officials bracing for a leader who seeks to undermine support for Ukraine, block a migration pact and weaken the bloc’s climate agenda. In addition, Babis promised before the election to end the Czech ammunition initiative, a programme that helps supply Kyiv with millions of artillery rounds.”
However, the website also highlights some key differences to the Hungarian Prime Minister: “Babis is not Orban. He attacks Ukrainian refugees at home but insists he is not pro-Russian. He is strongly opposed to Brussels, but assures voters that he has no plans for a referendum on EU membership. He is above all a pragmatist – he wants to make deals more than he is an ideologue – which may make him unpredictable, but perhaps also a person who is easier to deal with.”
Politico notes that Babis, who was prime minister from 2017 to 2021, is publicly known for wanting to cut aid to Ukraine. “Coalition negotiations are likely to take weeks, and experts expect the final shape of the new government to depend on how a group of smaller parties, including those on the fringes of the right and left, perform,” the Brussels-based news server says. It adds that, for the first time since the fall of communism in 1989, extremist parties pushing for an exit from the EU and NATO could get directly into government, or provide support for Babis’s ANO party.
The ex-premier has repeatedly said he would like to govern alone, but unless ANO wins more than 40% of the seats, that scenario is unlikely, Politico reports. The current governing coalition and ANO have ruled out cooperation, leaving only smaller parties as potential partners. “Babis ruled out a coalition with the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) last year, but his stance has been ambiguous as elections approach. ANO and SPD already share power at the regional level in four parts of the country. On Tuesday, Babis said he would not govern with the Communists, although his first government relied on their support,” the server added.
The Austrian paper Die Presse writes today that today and Saturday have been marked on the calendar not only in the Czech Republic, but also in Brussels, Kyiv and Moscow, although for different reasons in each.
“If the long-term stable forecasts are confirmed, the Czech Republic could deviate from its still firm pro-Western course,” the paper wrote. The biggest fear among Ukraine supporters, it said, is that the next Czech government could halt aid to Kyiv.
Austrian public broadcaster ORF said that the election campaign was dominated by the issue of Ukraine and further Czech aid to the country, which is resisting Russian aggression. According to ORF, Babis was very vague on his plans, but there is no doubt that the Czech Republic would like to reconnect more with its Central European partners Slovakia and Hungary, which are critical of the European Union and military aid to Ukraine.
The Swiss daily Neue Zurcher Zeitung writes that “after Hungary and Slovakia, a right-wing populist could also win the elections in the Czech Republic”. “A bloc of states critical of the EU is thus forming, which could weaken support for Ukraine,” the Swiss newspaper added, adding that if the Czech Republic also sides with Russia, “Europe will be in trouble”.
The Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary could form a counterpoint to Poland and the Baltic states in central-eastern Europe, becoming “a gateway for Russian activities, propaganda and efforts to gain influence”. The three Central European countries could “choke the wheels” of decision-making in the European Union, according to Neue Zurcher Zeitung. “Brussels’ efforts to play a greater role in the defence of Europe and its support for Ukraine in particular could be dealt a severe blow,” the Swiss daily wrote.
Similar themes were expressed in the German press, with Babis’s potential alliance with populists in Hungary, Slovakia and elsewhere characterised as a headache for Brussels.
“Ex-premier Andrej Babis is the clear favourite in the Czech elections. Other Europeans fear a rightward shift in the country and new blockages in the European Council,” wrote the German economic daily Handelsblatt. It portrays the ANO leader as a “Czech Trump” and a billionaire who is likely to make a “remarkable comeback”.
The possible return to power of “right-wing populists” is causing concern in Brussels, according to Handelsblatt. A Eurosceptic alliance could emerge between Babis’s Czech Republic and Prime Minister Robert Fico’s Slovakia and Viktor Orban’s Hungary. According to Handelsblatt, diplomats fear this will further complicate the vote in the European Council. However, it also points out that because of his “dependence on EU subsidies”, Babis is generally seen as less critical of the European Union than Fico and Orban.
According to Handelsblatt, the high level of support for ANO stems from the strong dissatisfaction with the current government of Prime Minister Petr Fiala. Tagesspiegel also wrote that ANO is strong thanks to the “mistakes of the pro-European government”.
The future development of the Czech Republic will depend on which coalition partners ANO chooses, noted multiple German media outlets. Handelsblatt describes Tomio Okamura’s Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) as “right-wing extremist” and the Stacilo! movement as “left-wing extremist”, and both as holding positions friendly to Russia. According to ntv, these are right-wing or left-wing radical movements.
The Frankfurter Rundschau newspaper describes the SPD as “right-wing extremist” and Stacilo! as a “pro-Russian-Communist” movement.
According to ntv, President President Petr Pavel, whom the station describes as “a former NATO general, resolutely pro-European and a strong supporter of Ukraine”, will play a prominent role after the elections.
Most of the German media also mention the topic of further support for Ukraine in their analyses, reporting that Babis has promised to cancel the ammunition initiative which has so far delivered 3.5 million pieces of large-calibre ammunition to Ukraine.
According to Die Welt, Babis is “holding back in his statements in support of Ukraine”, but he is “not saying anything good” about Russian President Vladimir Putin either. According to Die Zeit, the Czech Republic is now one of the “resolute supporters of Ukraine”. “But under Babis’s government it could come closer to Slovakia and Hungary, which take pro-Russian positions on this issue,” it wrote.
Meanwhile, Polish news channel TVN24 is comparing these elections to a European version of US President Donald Trump’s ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) movement.
According to Gazeta Wyborcza, Andrej Babis and his ANO movement will win the vote, but will not gain a majority in parliament and will have to rely on a coalition with extremists.
“MAGA in the European way. Czechs vote for parliament,” reads the headline of a lengthy TVN24 report, noting that Babis’s election slogan, ‘Strong Czech Republic’, is a direct reference to Trump’s motto, ‘Make America Great Again’. The station compares the electoral division of the public to two Czech worlds.
