The opposition ANO are now polling at 35.3% support ahead of the Czech parliamentary elections in the autumn, more than all the remaining parties of the current governing coalition combined, according to an electoral model by the STEM agency for CNN Prima News, published yesterday.
According to STEM, the opposition Pirates, far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD), and the Communist-led Stacilo! alliance would also enter the Chamber of Deputies.
ANO is slightly stronger compared to similar poll results in previous weeks. The same is true of the Spolu coalition of the Civic Democrats (ODS), Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) and TOP 09, which is on 19.8% in the current model. The government Mayors and Independents (STAN) are on 10.3%.
In terms of seats, ANO would win 88 seats in the 200-seat Chamber, Spolu would win 47 MPs, and STAN 23.
SPD would enter the lower house with 8.1% and 18 seats, Stacilo! (‘Enough’) would have 6.7% and 15 seats, and the Pirates 5.3% and nine seats.
The Motorists would remain 0.5 percentage points below the 5% threshold, according to the poll, though this is within the margin of error. “We can also focus on their electoral potential, which is high and growing,” said STEM analyst Martin Kratochvíl.
The levels of recorded support for Stacilo! and the Motorists differ significantly between STEM’s model and Czech Television’s Kantar CZ model. According to the Kantar model, the Motorists have strengthened to 7.5%, drawing level with the Pirates, while Stacilo! would not currently make it into the lower house.
According to the STEM poll, other parties remaining outside of parliament would include the Greens (2.6%), the Social Democrats (2.5%), and Prisaha (‘Oath’; 2.1%).
The expected election turnout is 59.5%, according to the STEM agency’s pre-election preference poll, conducted on a sample of 1,538 respondents in several waves from 17 January to 4 February.
Results of the STEM election model (in percent):
| Party | Current | Previous |
| ANO | 35.3 | 35.1 |
| Spolu | 19.8 | 18.8 |
| STAN | 10.3 | 10.6 |
| SPD | 8.1 | 8.7 |
| Pirates | 5.3 | 6.4 |
| Stacilo! | 6.7 | 5.8 |
| Motorists | 4.5 | 4.1 |
