Pavel Still Leads In Presidential Polling, as Nerudova Gains Ground

The difference between the two leading candidates, Pavel and Babis, remains within the statistical margin of error. Photo credit: Martin Strachon, via Wikimedia commons (CC BY-SA 4.0). 

Prague, Nov 7 (CTK) – General Petr Pavel would win the first round of the Czech presidential election if held in October, with 22.5% of the vote, closely trailed by ex-PM and opposition ANO leader Andrej Babis with 22%, according to the latest election model released by the Median agency.

However, economist Danuse Nerudova has seen her voter preferences rise to 15%, from 10% in September.

Support for both Pavel and Babis dropped compared to September, and the difference between them remains within the statistical margin of error.

In the September model, Pavel was at 24% and Babis, who announced his presidential candidacy just one week ago, had 23.5%.

In the second round of the election, Pavel would defeat Babis by 59% to 41%. About one quarter of voters are still undecided over who to support for president, the pollsters said.

Senator Pavel Fischer would finish fourth with 7.5%, followed by CMKOS union leader Josef Stredula (7%). Both saw their voter preferences drop by 0.5 percentage points since September.

Support also dropped for fellow senators Marek Hilser (independent) and Miroslava Nemcova (ODS). Nemcova is regularly included in polls despite not having announced her candidacy.

In a potential second round, Babis would lose not only to Pavel but also to Nerudova, Hilser and Fischer. If he faced Stredula in the runoff, they would be tied at 50% each, according to the model.

64% of those polled said they intended to vote in the presidential election, and another 10% said they would consider it. On the other hand, 6.5% said they probably wouldn’t take part in the elections, and 11.5% said they definitely would not vote. 8% of respondents said they were still undecided.

In the first round of the previous presidential elections in January 2018, the turnout was 62%.

Median conducted the poll on 1,005 people aged over 18 in October, before Babis announced his candidacy, and still without a definitive list of candidates.

The first round of the presidential election is scheduled for 13-14 January 2023.

The deadline for candidates to submit their bid is Tuesday, 8 November. For a candidacy to be accepted, it must be supported by the signatures of at least 50,000 voters, 20 deputies or 10 senators.

Median presidential election model (in percent):

CandidateJuly 2022August 2022September 2022October 2022
Petr Pavel21.
Andrej Babis25.523.523.522.0
Danuse Nerudova7.511.510.015.0
Pavel Fischer6.
Josef Stredula7.
Marek Hilser7.
Miroslava Nemcova5.
Source: Median
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